LIBERAL DELAWARE: BRUTAL MIDTERM ELECTION NIGHT SHOWS A REPUBLICAN CAN’T WIN DELAWARE

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Tuesday was a brutal night for the Republican Party in Delaware.

All five of its statewide candidates lost their elections. Their margins of defeat ranged from “decisive” to “humiliating.”

The one that hurts the most is the one that was closest —
Treasurer Ken Simpler, the party’s clear rising star, lost his
re-election bid to first-time candidate Colleen Davis, 46-52.

Simpler was almost universally seen as the Republicans’
next — maybe only — potential candidate to make a serious run for
governor in the next few years. Not only does Simpler’s loss mean there
won’t be any statewide Republicans next year, it strongly suggests that
the party won’t be able to compete in such races for the foreseeable
future.

The numbers: See the results of Tuesday’s statewide elections

If any Republican could win a statewide, it would be
Simpler. He had plenty of campaign funds, he earned widespread praise
for his work in office and he cultivated a reputation as a moderate
consensus builder, which could have theoretically helped him win
independent and even Democratic voters.

But it wasn’t enough. Maybe it was rage at President
Donald Trump, maybe his message got lost in the noise, but Simpler just
couldn’t overcome the huge registration advantage Democrats enjoy in
Delaware.

Republicans are used to being outnumbered in Delaware,
but their plight is getting worse. Not only are there 135,000 more
Democrats than Republicans, the majority party is adding voters at a
significantly faster rate than the GOP.

So the gap is wide, and getting wider.

The GOP used to overcome its registration disadvantage by
running candidates like Mike Castle, who was fiscally conservative but
socially moderate or even liberal. That made him capable of winning
independents and Democrats.

These days, Republicans seem to be relaying more heavily
on candidates like Rob Arlett — Trump-supporting, family-values
conservatives. These candidates might excite Sussex County
conservatives, but they don’t have much out-of-party appeal. And simple
math says Republicans can’t win a base election.

Even Republicans with crossover appeal — like Simpler,
who Castle enthusiastically endorsed — are struggling these days. Not
only are Republican voters drifting further to the right, but Democrats
are less and less likely to cross party lines, particularly while Trump
is in office.

There was more bad news for Republicans in the races for
the General Assembly. Republicans lost a seat in the House and a seat in
the Senate, which doesn’t sound bad — until you hear who was defeated.

Rep. Deborah Hudson and Sen. Greg Lavelle were both
longtime lawmakers and top leaders in their caucuses. Lavelle in
particular was probably the single most effective legislator in opposing
Democrats’ agenda.

There is a reason why Democrats threw the kitchen sink at him — Republicans are going to sorely miss Lavelle in Dover.

There are some points of consolation for the GOP.  While
elected New Castle County Republicans are an increasingly endangered
species, they aren’t totally extinct — the GOP successfully defended two
Pike Creek-area House seats despite steep registration disadvantages
and energetic Democratic challengers.

Republicans can also take comfort in the knowledge that
their grip on the southern end of the state is now near-absolute.
Democrats were excited about many of the candidates they ran in Sussex
County, particularly Don Allan, but they all got crushed — outside of
liberal enclaves at the beaches, no Democratic candidate broke 40
percent.

It’s clear that Delaware’s two political parties are
increasingly entrenching themselves in their geographic strongholds —
Democrats are locking down New Castle County while Republicans tighten
their grip on Sussex.

Unfortunately for Republicans, there are far more people
upstate than there are downstate. And until they find some way to break
out of this mold, they will be firmly limited to minority status.

I’m convinced this is a bad thing for Delaware.

As a moderate, I worry that Democrats will be inevitably
be pushed to the left once their main concern is winning a primary
election. But regardless of your ideology, there’s reason to want
competitive general elections.

When the primary election is the vote that matters, and
when only Democrats get to vote in that election, then only Democrats
really get a say in who leads our state. Less than half the state gets
to pick who governs all of us.

Related: Delaware’s closed primary elections disenfranchise independent voters like me

That’s just undemocratic. It’s a potential recipe for
complacency and corruption. And the only way it’s going to change is if
Republicans stop playing base-obsessed hard-right-wing politics and claw
their way back into relevance on the statewide scene.

Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening anytime soon.